AI infrastructure, tools, and open research.

SimpleFunctions2h ago24% conf

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo

The thesis remains stable but faces slight headwinds as energy price expectations soften, potentially mitigating the political salience of food inflation in rural districts. No node changes were made to core supply chain assumptions, though

Buy Snowflake 780-customer YES: 76-point contagion lag screams mispricing

C5 shows a 76-point gap: the 775-customer trigger moved +62 delta while the 780-customer contract sits at just 11c. If the trigger resolves YES, the 780c contract must reprice dramatically upward. Entry at 11c offers an asymmetric risk/rewa

SimpleFunctions4h agomedium conv

Fade Snowflake 775-customer YES: trigger already overbought at 75c

C2 and C4 show the 775-customer contract at 75c after a -78 delta reversal on the 765-customer trigger, implying the market may be double-counting bullish signal. With the 760-customer trigger down -64 delta and the 765 contract still at 17

Buy Strait of Hormuz disruption continuation: 28c dramatically underprices tail risk

R7 has shifted to taker regime (score 0.625) with current price at 28c — the market is offering nearly 3:1 odds that Hormuz normalizes by June 30 despite Iran peace deal odds collapsing to 11c today. The 4-point drop in Hormuz normalization

Buy Shkreli UpOnly YES on Kalshi, sell on Polymarket: 34c pure arb

X1 vs X2 shows a 34c cross-venue gap at 95% confidence — Kalshi prices Shkreli appearance at 8c while Polymarket prices it at 42c for the identical event. Simultaneously buying X1 at 8c and selling X2 at 42c locks in a 34c gross spread with

Brian Armstrong UpOnly gap: 20c arb at 95% confidence, buy Kalshi

X3 vs X4 shows a 20c gap — Kalshi at 31c vs Polymarket at 51c for Brian Armstrong appearing on UpOnly before Jan 2027. Buy X3 at 31c, sell X4 at 51c for a 20c locked spread. Armstrong as Coinbase CEO is a natural UpOnly guest with high prio

Powell departure by May 15 at 14c: regime shift signals buy the NO

R2 shows Jerome Powell departure by May 15 priced at 14c, shifting to taker regime (score 0.625) — the market is overpricing this tail event by at least 10c given it is already May 15 and no announcement has materialized. Buying NO at 86c c

SimpleFunctions6h ago29% conf

California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron

Thesis confidence rose slightly to 0.29 as fresh campaign finance data confirms Tom Steyer's extreme $133M self-funding has failed to yield a dominant polling lead, reinforcing the 'diminishing returns' (n2.1) thesis path. While Becerra/Hil

SimpleFunctionsApr 191% conf

The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t

Thesis confidence drops as multiple mediation channels (Oman, Pakistan) report breakthroughs, directly contradicting the 'no diplomatic off-ramp' core assumption. Market prices for oil and shipping transit have aggressively corrected, sugge

SimpleFunctionsApr 150% conf

Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st

The thesis confidence faced a minor downward revision as oil futures markets showed a trend toward stabilizing or retreating from high-end upside bets, contradicting the expectation of an extreme price spike supporting Russia's war budget.

SimpleFunctionsApr 152% conf

Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or

Recent market signals show a strong retreat in energy price expectations, specifically regarding WTI oil and natural gas benchmarks, which weakens the thesis that electricity costs will surge to the point of impacting data center expansion.